Monday, December 14, 2009
Quotes on RAJPUTS
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Sale Season Ahead
In order to use this to engineer an unparalleled human revolution, the 3G auctions should actually become the pivot point for re-engaging consumers, investors, service providers, government and civil society to debate the impact of a mobile telephony-led revolution that will rapidly unfold over the next five years.
Clearly, 3G technology is set to substantially change the experience and expectations of consumers by transforming the basic use of the phone from pure voice to data services like m-health, m-commerce, m-governance, m-education and others.
Urban consumers will be exposed to high-speed data access, which will drive stronger productivity and competitiveness. The experience will be far more life-altering for rural consumers. Not so much because they will use 3G for data, but because telecom operators will be forced to roll out networks in unserved rural territory to recover additional 3G spectrum costs. Millions will hear the proverbial dial tone for the very first time in their lives.
The experience and benefits of ubiquitous 24x7 connectivity is set to change the world of millions of Indians forever. Anyone doubting this should think of their own life before and after the mobile phone. These consumer-led changes are expected to have a profound impact on policy issues relating to health, education and governance as increased access fuels expectations.
As India moves towards higher teledensity, 500 million citizens who were once in a rural cocoon will experience the power of being in touch with each other, with the bureaucracy and politicians. As the asymmetry of information declines it will put serious pressure on politicians and bureaucracy to deliver on governance and development objectives. Logically, this implies that there will be very few information black holes left in the country by the time elections are held in 2019.
This engagement has the potential of pushing development to the forefront as a key election plank rather than caste and regional issues, which have dominated India's electoral process since independence. The information revolution will ensure that citizens know more, expect more and hopefully demand more. While this is great news for honest change agents politicians and bureaucrats who are battling distance and illiteracy for the dishonest, the mobile-led information access rural India will get could be the next big curse.
The telecom competitive landscape will also witness serious changes by 2011. Operators hold 5.7 MHz of 2G spectrum in India, which is a third of the international average. At present 12 to 13 operators compete for customers in each of the 22 telecom circles. The 3G auctions will give five of these 13 access to additional spectrum as there is only provision for five 3G operators, taking their average to slightly over 10 MHz of spectrum (2G plus 3G) while the rest will continue to struggle for spectrum.
Unless the government releases more 3G spectrum quickly, which it will be constrained to do, this will force rapid consolidation between 3G spectrum haves and have-nots. New operators who entered India's telecom market in 2008 with merely 4.4 MHz of 2G spectrum can hardly compete with large established operators, one of which has already crossed the 100 million subscribers threshold with some others likely to follow over the next year or so.
This implies another policy reversal is on the cards. The same government that fragmented spectrum and the industry in 2008 to create an average of 11 operators per circle, will be forcing consolidation barely a year on, on grounds of spectrum scarcity.
The 3G auctions will also ensure that spectrum pricing undergoes permanent change. For the first time since 2001, market-based pricing will be used, though it is debatable whether the government's intervention to decide the number of slots, reserve price and qualifying criteria really leaves the market to play its full role in determining the price.
Despite this, there are upsides: India will have at least four private operators providing advanced 3G services to urban subscribers by the end of 2010 with more coverage for rural subscribers in the following years. But none of this can be taken for granted considering that India over the last 15 years has quietly endured the most cruel digital divide possible. To ensure equal distribution of the benefits of mobile technology and penetration, a national debate involving all stakeholders is essential. This exercise carries the potential of impacting more citizens socially and economically than any other single policy move in India's history. Hopefully, this will not be yet another missed opportunity.
market trend (bull and bear) market
Market Trend is the prevailing course or tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction over time. [1] These trends are classified as secular trends (long term), primary trends(mid-term) and secondary trends (short-term). [2] The concept of a market trend is used in technical analysis and contrasts the standard academic view of financial markets, the efficient market hypothesis.[3] [4]
Technical analysis utilizes the concept that market trends or market cycles occur with a certain degree of regularity and predictability and consideration of market trends is common to many investors. [5] The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends respectively and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities (stocks).[6] For example the expressions "bullish" and "bearish" mean may be used to mean "bullish on gold" or "bearish on technology stocks..
Secular market trends
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years (but whose distribution may form a bell curve over a period of 17 years, in the stock market) and consists of sequential primary trends.
In a secular bull market the primary bear markets are usually shorter than the primary bull markets because the prevailing trend is bullish or upward moving. The United States was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.
In a secular bear market, the primary bull markets are usually shorter than the primary bear markets. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g),[7] and became part of the Great Commodities Depression. The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period of 1982 to 2000.
Primary market trends
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market or market sector and lasts for a year or more.
[edit]Bull market
A bullish market trend in the stock market often begins before the general economy shows clear signs of recovery. A bull market is associated with increasing investor confidence, and increased investing in anticipation of future price increases capital gains.
India's Bombay Stock Exchange Index, SENSEX, was in a bull market trend for almost five years from April 2003 to January 2008 as it increased from 2,900 points to 21,000 points. Another notable and recent bull market was in the 1990s when the U.S. and many other global financial markets rose rapidly.
In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.
International sculpture team Mark and Diane Weisbeck were chosen to re-design Wall Street's Bull Market. Their winning sculpture, the "Bull Market Rocket" was chosen as the modern, 21st century symbol of the up-trending Bull Market.
[edit]Bear market
A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time.[8] A bear market is a downward primary market trend. It is accompanied by widespread investor fear and pessimism. Investors anticipate further losses and are motivated to sell.
Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market. To take the example of a bear stock market, it is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of the majority of stocks over a defined period of time. According to The Vanguard Group, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period."[9]
The most famous bear market in history followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of market capitalization by July 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression. After slowly regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half. A milder, low-level, long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the stagflation of U.S. economy, the 1970s energy crisis, and the high unemployment of the early 1980s.
A notable bear market occurred between about March 2000 and October 2002. The last one occurred approximately between October 2007 and March 2009. A rise of around 40% happened between early March 2009 and early May 2009 and as of August 2009 the debate on where the market will trend is unresolved.
Market Trend is the prevailing course or tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction over time. [1] These trends are
about warren buffet my idle person
Warren Edward Buffett (born August 30, 1930) is a U.S. investor, businessman, and philanthropist. He is one of the most successful investors in history, the largest shareholder and C.E.O. of Berkshire Hathaway,[4] and in 2008 was ranked by Forbes as the richest person in the world with an estimated net worth of approximately $62 billion.[5]
Buffett is often called the "Oracle of Omaha"[6] or the "Sage of Omaha"[7] and is noted for his adherence to the value investingphilosophy and for his personal frugality despite his immense wealth.[8]
Buffett is also a notable philanthropist, having pledged to give away 85 percent of his fortune to the Gates Foundation. He also serves as a member of the board of trustees at Grinnell College.[9]
In 1999, Buffett was named the top money manager of the twentieth century in a survey by the Carson Group, ahead of Peter Lynch andJohn Templeton.[10] In 2007, he was listed among Time's 100 Most Influential People in the world.[11]
Early life
Warren Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the only son of Howard Buffett and second of three children. He worked at his grandfather's grocery store. In 1943, Buffett filed his first income tax return, deducting his bicycle and watch as a work expense for $35 for his work as newspaper delivery boy.[12] After his father was elected to Congress, Buffett was educated at Woodrow Wilson High School, Washington, D.C.[13] In 1945, in his freshman year of high school, Buffett and a friend spent $25 to purchase a used pinball machine, which they placed in a barber shop. Within months, they owned three machines in different locations.
Buffett first enrolled at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, (1947–49) where he joined the Alpha Sigma Phi Fraternity. His father and uncles were Alpha Sigma Phi brothers from the chapter in Nebraska. In 1950, he transferred to the University of Nebraska where he received a B.S. in Economics.[14]
Buffett then enrolled at Columbia Business School after learning that Benjamin Graham, (the author of The Intelligent Investor), and David Dodd, two well-known securities analysts, taught there. He then received a M.S. in Economics from Columbia University in 1951.
In Buffett’s own words:
I’m 15 percent Fisher and 85 percent Benjamin Graham.[15]
The basic ideas of investing are to look at stocks as business, use the market's fluctuations to your advantage, and seek a margin of safety. That’s what Ben Graham taught us. A hundred years from now they will still be the cornerstones of investing.[16]
Career
Buffett was employed from 1951–54 at Buffett-Falk & Co., Omaha as an Investment Salesman, from 1954–1956 at Graham-Newman Corp., New York as a Securities Analyst, from 1956–1969 at Buffett Partnership, Ltd., Omaha as a General Partner and from 1970–Present at Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Omaha as its Chairman, CEO.
In 1951, Buffett discovered Graham was on the board of GEICO insurance. Taking a train to Washington, D.C. on a Saturday, he knocked on the door of GEICO's headquarters until a janitor allowed him in. There he met Lorimer Davidson, Geico's Vice President, and the two discussed the insurance business for hours. Davidson would eventually become Buffett's life-long friend and a lasting influence [17] and later recall that he found Buffett to be an “extraordinary man” after only fifteen minutes. Buffett graduated from Columbia and wanted to work on Wall Street, however, both his father and Ben Graham urged him not to. He offered to work for Graham for free, but Graham refused.[18]
Buffett returned to Omaha and worked as a stockbroker while taking a Dale Carnegie public speaking course.[citation needed] Using what he learned, he felt confident enough to teach an "Investment Principles" night class at the University of Nebraska. The average age of his students was more than twice his own. During this time he also purchased a Sinclair Texaco gas station as a side investment. However, this did not turn out to be a successful business venture.
In 1952 Buffett married Susan Thompson and the next year they had their first child, Susan Alice Buffett. In 1954, Buffett accepted a job at Benjamin Graham's partnership. His starting salary was $12,000 a year (approximately $97,000 adjusted to 2008 dollars). There he worked closely with Walter Schloss. Graham was a tough man to work for. He was adamant that stocks provide a wide margin of safety after weighting the trade-off between their price and their intrinsic value. The argument made sense to Buffett but he questioned whether the criteria were too stringent and caused the company to miss out on big winners that had more qualitative values.[18] That same year the Buffetts had their second child, Howard Graham Buffett. In 1956, Benjamin Graham retired and closed his partnership. At this time Buffett's personal savings were over $174,000 and he started Buffett Partnership Ltd., an investment partnership in Omaha.
In 1957, Buffett had three partnerships operating the entire year. He purchased a five-bedroom stucco house in Omaha, where he still lives, for $31,500. In 1958 the Buffett's third child,Peter Andrew Buffett, was born. Buffett operated five partnerships the entire year. In 1959, the company grew to six partnerships operating the entire year and Buffett was introduced toCharlie Munger. By 1960, Buffett had seven partnerships operating: Buffett Associates, Buffett Fund, Dacee, Emdee, Glenoff, Mo-Buff and Underwood. He asked one of his partners, a doctor, to find ten other doctors willing to invest $10,000 each in his partnership. Eventually eleven agreed. In 1961, Buffett revealed that Sanborn Map Company accounted for 35% of the partnership's assets. He explained that in 1958 Sanborn stock sold at only $45 per share when the value of the Sanborn investment portfolio was $65 per share. This meant that buyers valued Sanborn stock at "minus $20" per share and were unwilling to pay more than 70 cents on the dollar for an investment portfolio with a map business thrown in for nothing. This earned him a spot on the board of Sanborn.
Business
[edit]Acquisitions
In 1973, Berkshire began to acquire stock in the Washington Post Company. Buffett became close friends with Katharine Graham, who controlled the company and its flagship newspaper, and became a member of its board of directors.
In 1974, the SEC opened a formal investigation into Warren Buffett and Berkshire's acquisition of WESCO, due to possible conflict of interest. No charges were brought.
In 1977, Berkshire indirectly purchased the Buffalo Evening News for $32.5 million. Antitrust charges started, instigated by its rival, the Buffalo Courier-Express. Both papers lost money, until the Courier-Express folded in 1982.
In 1979, Berkshire began to acquire stock in ABC. Capital Cities' announced $3.5 billion purchase of ABC on March 18, 1985, surprising the media industry, as ABC was some four times bigger than Capital Cities was at the time. Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett helped finance the deal in return for a 25 percent stake in the combined company.[25] The newly merged company, known as Capital Cities/ABC (or CapCities/ABC), was forced to sell off some stations due to FCC ownership rules. Also, the two companies owned several radio stations in the same markets. [26]
In 1987, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 12% stake in Salomon Inc., making it the largest shareholder and Buffett the director. In 1990, a scandal involving John Gutfreund (former CEO of Salomon Brothers) surfaced. A rogue trader, Paul Mozer, was submitting bids in excess of what was allowed by the Treasury rules. When this was discovered and brought to the attention of Gutfreund, he did not immediately suspend the rogue trader. Gutfreund left the company in August 1991.[27] Buffett became CEO of Salomon until the crisis passed; on September 4 1991, he testified before Congress.[28]
In 1988, Buffett began buying stock in Coca-Cola Company, eventually purchasing up to 7 percent of the company for $1.02 billion. It would turn out to be one of Berkshire's most lucrative investments, and one which it still holds.
In 2002, Buffett entered in $11 billion worth of forward contracts to deliver U.S. dollars against other currencies. By April 2006, his total gain on these contracts was over $2 billion.
In 1998, he acquired General Re, (in a rare move, for stock). In 2002, Buffett became involved with Maurice R. Greenberg at AIG, with General Re providing reinsurance. On March 15, 2005, AIG's board forced Greenberg to resign from his post as Chairman and CEO under the shadow of criticism from Eliot Spitzer, attorney general of the state of New York. On February 9, 2006, AIG and the New York State Attorney General's office agreed to a settlement in which AIG would pay a fine of $1.6 billion.[29]
In 2009, Warren Buffett invested $2.6 billion as a part of Swiss Re's raising equity capital.[30][31] Berkshire Hathaway already owns a 3% stake, with rights to own more than 20%